Job Market Paper
“Barriers to Benefits: Unemployment Insurance Take-Up and Labor Market Effects” with Casey McQuillan (draft forthcoming)
Unemployment Insurance (UI) provides income support during job loss, yet take-up remains puzzlingly low, with less than half of eligible unemployed workers in the U.S. claiming benefits. We implement a large-scale field experiment among 50,000 workers in Washington State flagged in real time as likely recent job losers without a UI claim to study the causes and labor supply implications of incomplete take-up. Informational letters increased UI applications by 1.5 percentage points (an 80% increase), with effects concentrated among low-wage workers. We attribute the treatment effects to reduced learning costs rather than improved beliefs about eligibility due to the letters' positive effect on the application rejection rate. Randomized destigmatizing letters induced more applications only among high-wage job seekers. Despite raising UI take-up, we can rule out adverse labor supply effects. We argue work-search requirements serve a dual function: motivating faster re-employment while simultaneously excluding marginal applicants who do not satisfy compliance rules. To interpret these findings and quantify the underlying frictions, we develop and estimate a structural job search model with endogenous UI take-up that rationalizes our experimental effects and informs the design of targeted UI outreach policies.
Working Papers
“The Benefits of Unemployment Insurance for Marginally Attached Workers” with Casey McQuillan | SSRN Version
Existing research consistently finds that unemployment insurance (UI) benefits delay job finding with limited effects on job quality, but focuses on changes in UI generosity while holding fixed access to re-employment services. Using employer-employee matched data from Washington State and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design around the eligibility threshold for UI, we find that benefit receipt minimally delays re-employment but substantially improves labor market outcomes. UI increases cumulative hours worked by approximately 15 full-time weeks and earnings by $14,000 in the two years following job loss, representing 37% and 50% increases, respectively. These gains are driven by improved job quality, as recipients experience longer tenure and higher wages with their next employer. Effects are larger for workers living near public employment offices, suggesting that access to re-employment services enhances search productivity. Expanding UI access by lowering the eligibility threshold is much more cost-effective than raising benefit levels or extending potential duration, as workers benefit from more stable, higher-paying re-employment that partially offsets its cost.
Presented at SITE Labor Market Experience of Vulnerable Populations of Workers (2024) & Hoover Conference on Collaborative State/Local Policy Research (2025)
“The Labor Market Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence” with Jon Hartley, Filip Jolevski, and Vitor Melo
We develop a new survey analyzing Generative AI use in the labor market to assist in measuring the economic effects of Generative AI. We find, consistent with other surveys that Generative AI tools like large language models (LLMs) are most commonly used in the labor force by younger individuals, more highly educated individuals, higher income individuals, and those in particular industries such as customer service, marketing and information technology. Overall, we find that LLM adoption at work among U.S. survey respondents above 18 has increased rapidly from 30.1% as of December 2024, to 43.2% as of March/April 2025, and 45.6% as of June/July 2025. We also estimate Generative AI use at the intensive margins, its efficiency gains and its use in job search and seek to examine the effects of LLMs on productivity and the labor market using a number of additional datasets.
Peer-Reviewed Publications
"Micro and Macro Effects of Unemployment Insurance Policies: Evidence from Missouri" with Fatih Karahan and Kurt Mitman Journal of Political Economy, 2025, 133:9, 2836-2873
Latest version: Journal Edition | Ungated version | Replication Kit
We develop a method to jointly measure the response of worker search effort (micro effect) and vacancy creation (macro effect) to changes in the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits. To implement this approach, we exploit an unexpected cut in UI durations in Missouri and provide quasi-experimental evidence on the effect of UI on the labor market. The data indicate that the cut in Missouri significantly increased job-finding rates by raising the search effort of unemployed workers and the availability of jobs. The latter accounts for around one-third of the total effect.
Presented at IZA Workshop on Labor Market Institutions (2020) & Banco de Portugal Conference on Monetary Economics (2023)
"The Firm’s Role in Displaced Workers’ Earnings Losses” (2025) with Judith Scott-Clayton, ILR Review, 78(3), 517-542.
Latest version: Journal Edition | Ungated version | Appendix Material
The authors investigate the role of firm pay premiums in explaining the large, persistent earnings losses of displaced workers. They first estimate that long-run earnings for displaced workers from 2002 to 2008 in Ohio are depressed by 22%. Drawing upon empirical approaches from the displaced worker and firm heterogeneity literature, the authors then estimate that one-quarter of this earnings loss can be explained by the forfeiture of a favorable employer-specific pay premium. Such firm rents are more salient for those laid off from manufacturing firms, explaining half of their lost earnings. Nevertheless, this study adds to early evidence that firm rents do not explain the majority of earnings losses sustained by displaced workers in the United States.
"The Effect of Job Displacement on Public College Enrollment: Evidence from Ohio" with Veronica Minaya and Judith Scott-Clayton, Economics of Education Review, 92 (2023): 102327
Latest version: Journal Edition | Ungated version
Displaced workers suffer large and persistent earnings losses. These losses can be mitigated by returning to school, yet the extent to which such workers enroll in post-secondary education in response to displacement is poorly understood. Using employer-employee-student matched administrative data from Ohio, we provide the first direct evidence of workers’ enrollment responses following mass layoffs in the United States. We estimate that for every 100 displaced workers, only 1 is ever induced to enroll in a public college. This effect is concentrated almost entirely among displaced manufacturing workers, who enroll at a rate of 2.5 per 100. Workers with relatively low earnings at their layoff firms are the most likely to enroll in public institutions.
Presented at APPAM Fall Conference (2019), New York Fed Economics of Education Seminar (2019), and the AEFP Conference (2020)
Media Coverage: Inside Higher Ed
Selected Works in Progress
“Incomplete and Endogenous Take-Up of Unemployment Insurance Benefits” with Casey McQuillan
“Causes of Union Decline in the United States: Evidence from a Novel Dataset on Local Union Membership” with Matt Mazewski and Suresh Naidu
Other Writing
Undergraduate Publications and Works
The Firm’s Role in Displaced Workers’ Earnings Losses and Educational Investment Decisions, Columbia University Senior Thesis, 2018
Awarded David Estabrook Romine Prize for Best Senior Thesis in Economics Department
The Asymmetric Effects of Corporate Tax Changes on Employment, Issues in Political Economy, Vol 26(1), 2017, 1-21
Lead article; presented at undergraduate session at the 2017 Eastern Economics Association conference
LIBERTY STREET ECONOMICS BLOGS
Is the Tide Lifting All Boats? A Closer Look at the Earnings Growth Experiences of U.S. Workers with René Chalom, Fatih Karahan, and Giorgio Topa. March 2020.
Job Ladders and Careers with Fatih Karahan and Serdar Ozkan. October 2019.
Minimum Wage Impacts Along the New York-Pennsylvania Border with Jason Bram and Fatih Karahan. September 2019.
Media coverage: New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Crain’s New York, Business Insider
Expecting the Unexpected: Job Losses and Household Spending with Fatih Karahan and Laura Pilossoph. March 2019.
Media coverage: Forbes